Learn more about analytics and research best practices, as well as real world examples and solutions for nonprofits.

RECENT POSTS

Apr 5, 2018

Predictions are a Tricky Business

For all of us who are “March Madness” fans, this is a great article: https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-04-03/ncaa-bracket-was-better-all-rest-2018

Given all the upsets in the first round of the tournament this year, some lucky ESPN entrant, “Che 3”, accurately guessed 80% of the games, including the finals matchup and the eventual winner, Villanova.

That’s impressive.

Until you realize that there were 17.3 million entrees into the ESPN contest. And the best one was only 80% right.

Predicting the future is a tricky business. Joshua Ramos wrote a fascinating novel on the topic called “The Age of the Unthinkable.” Basically, it’s a bunch of case studies on how bad we humans are at predicting the future. Even the really smart humans.

https://www.amazon.com/Unthinkable-First-Joshua-Cooper-Ramo/dp/1408700581/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1522851729&sr=1-2&keywords=the+age+of+the+unthinkable&dpID=415KoqBr8kL&preST=_SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch

Part of what we do at Analytical Ones is to forecast future revenue for nonprofit organizations. And we think we have a pretty good model. But it’s not a perfect model. There are no perfect models, as there are always variables that affect results that are impossible to predict. But we get way closer than 80% with a lot fewer than 17.3 million tries.

Right Tools for the Right Job

Goodness gracious. Are you serious? Apparently in UK, COVID19 cases were under reported due to an Excel limitation on the number of cases in a database. Lives are at stake people! Use the right tools of the trade. And even when lives are not at stake, use the right...

read more

Fall Forecast 2020

I’ll start with the obvious: No one knows how this fall’s fundraising campaigns will do. We are at in a turbulent time. Global pandemic. Rising unemployment. Stimulus checks. Divisive election. World powers butting heads. Us analyst rely heavily on past data to give...

read more

The People Behind Nonprofits: Part Three

Interested in pursuing a career in nonprofit operations management? Here’s what experts in the field think you should know: It’s not enough to just be passionate about the cause. The nonprofit sector also needs business-minded people who excel at their jobs and are...

read more

ARCHIVES

© 2020 Analytical Ones