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Mar 25, 2019

March Madness and Predicting the Future

For all of us who are “March Madness” fans, this is a great article.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/bracketiq/2018-04-03/ncaa-bracket-was-better-all-rest-2018

Given all the upsets in the first round of the tournament last year, some lucky ESPN entrant, “Che 3”, accurately guessed 80% of the games, including the finals matchup and the eventual winner, Villanova.

That’s impressive.

Until you realize that there were 17.3 million entries into the ESPN contest. And the very best one was only 80% right.

Predicting the future is a tricky business. Joshua Ramos wrote a fascinating novel on the topic titled “The Age of the Unthinkable.” Basically, it’s a bunch of case studies on how bad we humans are at predicting the future. Even the super-smart humans.

https://www.amazon.com/Unthinkable-First-Joshua-Cooper-Ramo/dp/1408700581/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1522851729&sr=1-2&keywords=the+age+of+the+unthinkable&dpID=415KoqBr8kL&preST=_SY291_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&dpSrc=srch

One of the activities we do most often is to forecast how a client’s annual mail plan will perform. It’s a time-consuming process carefully discerning all the variables that impact a plan. And though our plans aren’t perfect, we are far closer than 80% accuracy– even without 17.3 million attempts.

Right Tools for the Right Job

Goodness gracious. Are you serious? Apparently in UK, COVID19 cases were under reported due to an Excel limitation on the number of cases in a database. Lives are at stake people! Use the right tools of the trade. And even when lives are not at stake, use the right...

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Fall Forecast 2020

I’ll start with the obvious: No one knows how this fall’s fundraising campaigns will do. We are at in a turbulent time. Global pandemic. Rising unemployment. Stimulus checks. Divisive election. World powers butting heads. Us analyst rely heavily on past data to give...

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The People Behind Nonprofits: Part Three

Interested in pursuing a career in nonprofit operations management? Here’s what experts in the field think you should know: It’s not enough to just be passionate about the cause. The nonprofit sector also needs business-minded people who excel at their jobs and are...

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